Sunday, November 2, 2008

Official Electoral Prediction

Here's my prediction for Tuesday:
(Prediction built using the nice Flash tool over at

Optimistic, yes, but I think the Obama GOTV machine will push us over the top in Georgia, Indiana, Missouri (all currently close in the polls). We'll win Montana because Ron Paul is on the ballot as a third-party spoiler. Early voting in North Carolina is massive too, and we currently enjoy a slim lead in overall polling.

And to be perfectly frank, I believe we have already won. The Kerry states are all safe (even Pennsylvania) and so are New Mexico and Iowa, and Obama has banked a tremendous lead in early voting in Nevada and Colorado, sufficient to win those states even given a substantial loss on Election Day voting. That's 278 electoral votes, 8 more than we need.

(Of course, this all assumes that the giant volunteer GOTV effort continues. No complacency!)


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