Official Electoral Prediction

Here's my prediction for Tuesday:
(Prediction built using the nice Flash tool over at 270towin.com.)

Optimistic, yes, but I think the Obama GOTV machine will push us over the top in Georgia, Indiana, Missouri (all currently close in the polls). We'll win Montana because Ron Paul is on the ballot as a third-party spoiler. Early voting in North Carolina is massive too, and we currently enjoy a slim lead in overall polling.

And to be perfectly frank, I believe we have already won. The Kerry states are all safe (even Pennsylvania) and so are New Mexico and Iowa, and Obama has banked a tremendous lead in early voting in Nevada and Colorado, sufficient to win those states even given a substantial loss on Election Day voting. That's 278 electoral votes, 8 more than we need.

(Of course, this all assumes that the giant volunteer GOTV effort continues. No complacency!)

Goooooobama!

John McCain on Personal Greed

Barack & Michelle Obama:

• One (1) house
• One (1) car
• No (0) airplanes

John & Cindy McCain:

• Eight (8) houses
• Thirteen (13) cars
• One (1) airplane
  

John McCain Is a Liar

For proof... mosey over to factcheck.org, it's pretty clear.

McCain Interferes with Hurricane Gustav Preparations

John McCain is headed to the Gulf Coast to do... something?

Moira Whelan of the Huffington Post writes:

John McCain's mere suggestion that he should go there shows his horrific and dangerous judgment. If it actually happens, which hopefully it does not [it did], then he will actually be doing harm. Because he is a presidential candidate, air traffic stops when he lands, roads are closed, and press follow him. Secret service and law enforcement personnel have to make sure everything is secure. That means all of these things STOP WORKING to make the area safer for the people getting out and protecting their homes. The only thing working in the favor of emergency management professionals are the noticeably small crowds at McCain events...so perhaps people will not be motivated to stay around.

Bonus: more comedy gold from McGaffe Machine:

"I think Sen. Obama, if they want to go down that route, in all candor, she has far, far more experience than Sen. Obama does," McCain said.

He cited Palin's stint as governor of a "state that produces 20 percent of America's energy" as well as her previous membership in the PTA and her time spent on the city council and in the mayor's office in Wasilla, a town of fewer than 7,000 people outside Anchorage.

Yes, ladies and gentlemen, John McCain cited Palin's PTA experience as a relevant qualification for the Vice Presidency of the United States.

"The Worst Vice-Presidential Nominee in U.S. History"

Today's recommended reading: Robert Elisberg explains why Ms. Palin is "the worst Vice-Presidential nominee in U.S. history":

Vice presidents are usually selected as people who are adept at blasting the other side's presidential candidate, because it's only the presidential candidate that matters. Joe Biden has already done that - twice - at length, spoken as someone who knows John McCain well and likes him. Sarah Palin had her first chance...and whiffed. Didn't even try. And it's hard to imagine what she has in her arsenal that will remotely allow her to do so in the future....

Now add on all the problems expressed above. Sarah Palin's inexplicably laughable lack of substance, most-especially on the foreign policy stage. Her taking away the one issue, experience, Republicans were even attempting. Her pushing away voters who might otherwise be willing to vote for a senator with 26 years in the Senate. Her bringing Hillary Clinton aggressively back into the campaign. Her inability to offer anything to off-set Joe Biden. Her standing as supposedly the most-qualified Republican woman as John McCain's first decision.

Sarah Palin? Really? Mr. McCain, Can I Please Have Some of What You Are Smoking?

Turns out the Republican VP pick is Sarah Palin, governor of Alaska for the past 21 months.

Er... huh?

Reasons that Palin is a good pick:

1. She's a woman.
2. She's an interesting and unexpected pick.
   
3. She locks up Alaska for McCain: it was a stretch for Obama anyway, it's a small state, and it's typically ignored by Presidential campaigns.

Reasons that Palin is a completely stupid pick:

1. Hillary Clinton, a woman with great credibility on women's issues, beloved by millions of women across the country, will tear her a new one and can do so without accusations of sexism. In other words: she was clearly chosen in order to appeal to women. It's obvious pandering at best and idiocy at worst.
   
2. She is strongly pro-life anti-choice. Female swing voters are mostly pro-choice.
3. Alaska has 3 electoral votes.
4. She's the target of an ethics investigation demanded by the Republican legislature in a state where the Republican Party is in serious trouble due to widespread ethical problems.
5. She endorsed Barack Obama's energy plan.
6. She is a creationist, and the Republican Party is already taking heat for being anti-science.
   
7. Joe Biden wipes the floor with her in any comparison and will crush her in the VP debate.
   
8. She recently dissed the office of VP.
9. She might not have been thoroughly vetted.
   
10. Even without all of that, Palin is a completely stupid pick because she eliminates McCain's best argument against Obama, and one of the few effective ones: that he is too young and inexperienced to be President. Palin is younger and less experienced than Obama. Less than two years ago, what was her job? Mayor of Wasilla, Alaska, population 6,715.
    

Frankly, I think that McCain had picked Mitt Romney, but then when the houses thing came up, since the Romneys are even more disgustingly rich than the McCains, he was forced to abandon that plan.

How Many Houses Does John McCain Own? McCain Himself Does Not Know.

In a spectacular gaffe that would be comedy gold were it not for the dire importance of the election this fall, here's John McCain on how many houses he owns (listen):

Q: How many houses do you and Mrs. McCain have?
A: I think, uh ... I'll let my staff get to you and tell you about that ...

Politico (who did the interview) reported it as:

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said in an interview Wednesday that he was uncertain how many houses he and his wife, Cindy, own.

"I think — I'll have my staff get to you," McCain told Politico in Las Cruces, N.M. "It's condominiums where — I'll have them get to you."

Interestingly, it actually is unclear how many houses he owns -- do you count the two luxury condos combined by remodel as one or two? how about the one ranch with three dwellings? -- but there's nothing in McCain's answer suggesting this thought process. He just said, "I don't know". (I counted six, though others have produced numbers as large as nine.)

Democrats smell blood. The new theme is that McCain is:

1. Out of touch at home.
2. Reckless abroad.

It seems to be effective, enough so that Obama has apparently delayed the VP announcement planned for today. A fine political day after the dismal polling releases yesterday.

UPDATE 8/22:

Here's yesterday's network news on the matter (hat tip). Ouch!

John McCain Doesn't Know What Middle Class Means

John McCain being interviewed at the Saddleback Forum last weekend:

Q: Define rich.
A: ... if you’re just talking about income, how about $5 million.

From the Carpetbagger Report:

As far as McCain is concerned, if you make $4.9 million a year, more than 99.9% of the population, you’re not quite rich.

In graphical form (click for bigness):



This has led to an excellent DNC attack ad:

Two Good Obama Ads

This one is running nationally during the Olympics:



This one is running in Nevada. While I'm a supporter of more nuke power, and lots of it, myself, I understand that the Democratic platform is anti-nuke. I like this one because it's such a clear whack at McCain's nuke positions: storing waste at Yucca Mountain, yes, trucking said waste through Arizona, no.

John McCain the Maverick?

Well, maybe if you define "maverick" as "voting with Bush 9 times out of 10".

John McCain Makes No Sense

Details on & transcript of the nonsense above.

How many houses does John McCain own?

At least six (four more than a senator needs):

1. A $4.7 million, 6,000-square-foot condo in Phoenix.
2. A $2.7 million beachfront condo near San Diego.
3. Another $2.1 million beachfront condo near San Diego.
4. A $1.8 million, 15-acre creekfront ranch in Yavapai County, Arizona.
5. A $1 million beachfront condo in La Jolla, California.
6. A $850,000 condo in Arlington, Virginia.

Bonus property excess:

• The McCains bought their daughter Meghan a condo, in cash, for $700,000 when she graduated from college last spring. No word on who pays the association fees.
  

The McCains also own a rental condo which they are currently trying to sell. It can be yours for $730,000.

The total value of McCain real estate is $13,800,000.

Yet despite their large net worth, the McCains can't manage their credit cards responsibly, and John McCain doesn't understand the economy.

John McCain Is Not a Moderate On Reproductive Issues

John McCain would have you believe he is a moderate. In 1999, he explained (quoted by Cliff Schecter via Joe Conason):

I'd love to see a point where [Roe v. Wade] is irrelevant, and could be repealed because abortion is no longer necessary. But certainly in the short term, or even the long term, I would not support repeal of Roe v. Wade, which would then force x number of women to [undergo] illegal and dangerous operations.

But what does his 2008 campaign website have to say on this issue?

John McCain believes Roe v. Wade is a flawed decision that must be overturned, and as president he will nominate judges who understand that courts should not be in the business of legislating from the bench.

I didn't go digging for this. It's the first paragraph on his "Human Dignity and Sanctity of Life" issue page.

Conason elaborates:

Perhaps he honestly cares about reducing the number of abortions. If so, he might want to encourage broad access to contraception and sex education, since he probably remembers what young people tend to do (and what he tended to do as often as possible when he was young and not so young).

On these issues McCain might, in other words, think for himself. Instead he merely parrots the ... far right, who vainly hope to prevent sex but in fact promote teenage pregnancy - and abortion as well as sexually transmitted disease - by blocking contraception and sex education. He simply doesn't care about [or doesn't understand] the toxic effect of these policies on young women. He prefers mindless posturing to thoughtful policymaking, as he demonstrated a year ago when he fumbled reporters' questions about condoms, contraception and AIDS...

Not only is McCain computer illiterate, he lacks even basic understanding of how condoms work. The New York Times was there:

Q: ... Do you think contraceptives help stop the spread of HIV?

Mr. McCain: (Long pause) You’ve stumped me.

Read the rest of the exchange if you think I've quoted him out of context to make him look dumb. The reporter goes on to ask him specifically about condoms, and McCain still has nothing.

To summarize, John McCain:

1. Wants to overturn Roe v. Wade, period.
2. Opposes scientifically accurate sex ed which is effective in reducing teen pregnancy and slowing the spread of disease.
   

Further reading: "Of condoms, Clinton, Obama and McCain", by Rahul K. Parikh, M.D. (Source for point #2 above.)